statistics (26 lessons)

Found in: Artemis, CorpBattleCards, Diagram, GTMLeads

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Lessons

Lesson 012: Bayesian Beta-Binomial Smoothing

The Artemis vote system shows 50 random images per ballot and asks voters to pick 5 favorites. With 500 ballots across 12,217 images, most images are shown only 1-2 times. A raw selection rate of "1 out of 1 shown = 100%" is meaningless — it tells you nothing about whether the image is actually pref...

Artemis 2026-05-24 algorithms

Lesson 013: Elo Rating for Image Comparison

The Artemis pairwise voting mode shows two images side by side and asks "which is better?" This produces binary outcomes (winner / loser) for specific pairs, not absolute ratings. We need to convert these relative comparisons into a single continuous strength score per image that can be combined wit...

Artemis 2026-05-24 algorithms

Lesson 014: Bradley-Terry-Luce and When to Skip It

We have pairwise comparison data (image A beats image B) and want the best possible strength estimates. Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) is the textbook model for this — it's more principled than Elo. But with 2,000 comparisons across 12,217 images, we chose to skip BTL entirely. This lesson explains what B...

Artemis 2026-05-24 algorithms

Lesson 015: Borda Count for Ranked Voting

The Artemis category voting mode asks voters to rank their top 3 images within a category. We need to convert these partial rankings into numeric scores that can be aggregated across voters and combined with batch and pairwise preference signals.

Artemis 2026-05-24 algorithms

Lesson 016: Krippendorff's Alpha for Sparse Agreement

We want to measure whether voters agree on which images are good. With 100 voters and 12,217 images, the voter-image matrix is >98% missing — most voters never saw most images. Standard agreement metrics require complete matrices. We need a reliability measure that handles extreme sparsity.

Artemis 2026-05-24 algorithms

Lesson 017: Composite Scoring with Heterogeneous Signals

We have three different types of preference data — batch selection rates, Elo ratings from pairwise comparisons, and Borda scores from category rankings. Each covers a different subset of images, uses a different scale, and captures a different aspect of preference. Most images have data from only o...

Artemis 2026-05-24 algorithms

Lesson 019: NULL as Honest Missing Data

Several columns in the scoring output have no meaningful value for most images. Only ~200 images have Elo scores (from 2,000 pairwise votes). Only ~150 images have Borda scores (from 250 category rankings). The BTL model wasn't run at all. Fleiss' kappa and Kendall's W can't be computed with incompl...

Artemis 2026-05-24 implementation

Lesson 022: Heuristic Month-Fit Scoring Without Text Metadata

When images lack text metadata (titles, descriptions, captions), month or season suitability can still be approximated from visual features alone — color temperature, brightness, contrast, and content flags. The signal is coarse (3-4 seasonal buckets, not 13 distinct months) but sufficient to preven...

Artemis 2026-05-24 algorithms

Lesson 025: Multiple Selection Methods as Baselines

When building an optimizer, always generate multiple candidate solutions using different methods — including at least one naive baseline. The baseline proves the optimizer adds value. The alternatives expose the trade-off frontier. Without baselines, you can't distinguish "good optimization" from "e...

Artemis 2026-05-24 implementation

Lesson 028: Chi-Squared Tests for Bias Detection at Small Scale

We planted known biases in synthetic vote data — 10% of voters had position bias (preferring earlier-displayed images), 20% had visual-drama bias (preferring dramatic images). We need statistical tests that can detect these biases with only 100 voters and 500 ballots, without requiring heavy statist...

Artemis 2026-05-24 algorithms

Lesson 029: Ground-Truth Recovery as Optimizer Validation

We have a calendar optimizer that selects 13 images from 12,217 using a weighted objective function (popularity, diversity, month-fit, cover-fit, redundancy penalty). The optimizer reports an objective score, but a high score doesn't prove the optimizer is selecting the *right* images — it could be...

Artemis 2026-05-24 testing

Lesson 030: Reliability Delta as Noise Measurement

We know that 20% of synthetic voters are intentionally noisy (10% position-biased, 10% random). We compute Krippendorff's alpha on all voters and get a moderate value (~0.52). But how much of the low agreement is caused by these noisy voters vs. genuine preference diversity among neutral voters? We...

Artemis 2026-05-24 implementation

Lesson 042: Lift as the Primary Bias Detection Metric

Block-aware statistics need a metric that answers: "does this voting block select images with attribute X more than expected?" Raw selection counts don't work because blocks have different sizes. Rate differences (block rate - global rate) are hard to interpret when base rates vary widely. The metri...

Artemis 2026-05-24 implementation

Lesson 053: Audit-First Design

Before writing any code for a new feature, produce a written audit of the existing codebase: what exists, what can be reused, where new code slots in. The audit document prevents reimplementing existing functionality and identifies the exact extension points — saving more time than it costs to write...

Artemis 2026-05-24 process

Lesson 057: Test-Gated Commits at Scale

Gate every commit on a passing test suite, not on "the feature looks done." With 1,500+ tests across a project, the suite catches regressions that visual inspection misses — wrong column names, broken imports, type mismatches, off-by-one errors. The test suite is the contract for "this commit is saf...

Artemis 2026-05-24 testing

Lesson 062: A Guided Reviewer Path for Portfolio Projects

Add a numbered "review this project in N minutes" path to the homepage of any portfolio project or case study. Without explicit guidance, reviewers wander randomly through pages and miss the strongest parts of the work. A curated path ensures every reviewer sees the same narrative arc, regardless of...

Artemis 2026-05-24 implementation

Scoring Composition

When ranking records from heterogeneous sources, decompose the score into independent components with explicit weights, each normalized to 0.0–1.0. This makes the scoring system auditable (you can explain why a record scored high), tunable (change one weight without affecting others), and extensible...

GTMLeads 2026-05-20 algorithms

Rule-Based Extraction Before LLM Extraction

When building an entity extraction pipeline, implement rule-based heuristics first and defer LLM-assisted extraction until the deterministic baseline is tested and measured. The rule-based layer gives you a reproducible, cost-free, fast foundation that LLM extraction can extend — not replace.

Diagram 2026-05-13 implementation

Phased Plans with Interstitial Phases

When mid-project discoveries require new work that doesn't fit the original phase structure, insert interstitial phases (3.5, 6.5) rather than renumbering downstream phases. This preserves commit history references, plan file anchors, and team communication while accommodating scope changes.

CorpBattleCards 2026-05-11 process